“Some Investor Guy” On Sovereign Debt

Over at Calculated Risk, “some investor guy” has a very
informative series of posts on sovereign debt, including current and historical
data; market estimates of the probabilities of default around the world; estimated
losses, including under a "really bad" scenario (whoa! Try not to focus on that
Japan number, yikes); and the possible impact on the CDS, interest rate swap,
and FX market.

Part 1: How
Large is the Outstanding Value of Sovereign Bonds?


Part 2. How
Often Have Sovereign Countries Defaulted in the Past?


Part 2B: More
on Historic Sovereign Default Research


Part 3. What
are the Market Estimates of the Probabilities of Default? 


Part 4. What
are Total Estimated Losses on Sovereign Bonds Due to Default? 


Part 5A. What
Happens If Things Go Really Badly? $15 Trillion of Sovereign Debt in Default

Part 5B. What
Happens If Things Go Really Badly? More Things Can Go Badly: Credit Default
Swaps, Interest Swaps and Options, Foreign Exchange

We’ve also had numerous posts here at the Lounge on the
legal aspects of sovereign debt and related crises, particularly the Greece
bailout.  They’re collected here.